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ΪʲôҹũƷĹʾڽϴ

Դ::δ֪ | :ȷֱ_̽ȷ_Ͷע~ | Ӱ

δũƷгǹʴгԴũƷ󽮽罫𽥵ͳũҵߺԹΪгֺͷչսԽܵͬ£ĸԽϵ͵ļ۸ũƷĸҾгеõչũƷɱũƷ۸γɵĻΪˣĴӳɱĽǶȣȽϷҹҪũƷɱҪߵIJԼɱҪԭΪҹũƷɱӭҹũҵսṩݡ

һҪũɱĹʱȽ

һũɱˮƽ

1.ܳɱˮƽ

ϽҹСס󶹡Ͳ˺޻ɱˮƽϸߡҹÿСɱ1.2ǰ͢1.4Ǽôͷ2ϣ1ÿɱͰ͢1.1-1.2Ƿ2ࡣ󶹵ɱԼҪ󶹳ڹͰ͢ 1.2-1.3ҹͲѣɱߴ2.81Ԫ/Ǽô3ࡣҹÿ޻ɱֻ5%ңǵ޻ջʽ޻һջ񣬵ҹͺࣩܶɱҪһЩоҪũУֻеɱһơȻҹ̵ÿɱҪң̩Ͱ͢ľɱȣйÿɱϵͣ1.14Ԫ/2.04Ԫ/44%.

ôʲôԭʹҹ󲿷ũƷɱڶչأӹũƷɱľĿũҩеءͶȷԼ˰պͳɱ֧һͼҳɱľԭ

2.ɱˮƽ

1ũҩãÿũƷɱеĻũҩˮƽҹߵĹ֮һÿСסͲѺ޻ɱУҹĻũҩöôͷ1ҹũﵥϸߣߵǸͶ롢߳ɱ͸߲ĵ·ͶȻǽɱֱ;Ȼµλ½ղһܴﵽ͵λƷɱĿġҪɱеʷãЧ;ǽũҵϼ۸

2еãͬͬǣҹũҵеˮƽϵͣÿλƷĻеȴ͡ȻСе̶ȱǸߵĶ࣬Сģ󡢻еʸߣλƷеͬǵĻƣ0.20-0.21Ԫ/1ҹũƷĻеˮƽͬϽеˮƽζţйũģܵ󡢻е̶ȽһߣλƷӵĻеҲж仯

3طãϽũƷɱطõ֧ӦʹõĻɱƣ1ҹطýԸ˵سаú͸֮תãͬɱطDzɱȵġζܲҹʹõĻɱҹũɱҪȱ1гҪߡ

ҹһϡȱĹңתƺгķҹũƷصĻɱ᲻һתơũҵоũ飬ũÿĶأأתѴ200Ԫ400Ԫȣˣһ㽲ҹũƷɱеطҪңֻҹĿǰũƷɱûеõֵ֡

11997-98굾ȡСס󶹡Ͳ˺޻ɱˮƽĹʱȽ

ÿƷͶɱλƷ

ɱ

ũҩеػͶ˰ճɱ

Сй0.290.210.030.460.050.080.181.31

0.220.200.260.070.080.000.291.12

ô0.200.170.020.060.000.120.56

0.040.050.040.060.000.120.35

͢-0.91

й0.220.090.010.430.030.060.100.94

0.180.260.210.080.020.000.140.88

0.040.070.030.070.000.160.45

͢-0.79

й0.220.200.040.930.100.200.322.03

0.250.480.550.140.050.000.301.76

͢-1.51

Ͳй0.520.170.031.520.140.200.222.81

ô0.380.260.030.080.060.000.110.92

й4.091.980.422.960.280.993.3914.11

2.964.711.611.880.400.001.7513.45

̵й0.160.090.010.430.050.100.161.01

̩0.170.140.000.220.000.060.59

й0.230.180.050.410.050.080.151.14

0.350.530.390.180.100.000.492.04

Դ˵йɱԡȫũƷɱϻࡷҾӦҵũҵũҵоλйɱΪ1997 1998ƽطѽΪаѣΪ19971998ƽذշѣôΪ1998갢ʡСɱݣΪ 1997ɱݣ˰գôͲΪ1998갢ʡArgentine TransgenͲƷֵƽ͢Ϊ1995ɱݡй̵;Ϊ1998ɱݣ̩Ϊ1998꼾̵ɱݡ㻻ٷʼ㣬ͬ

4ͶãҹһͶԣĹңͶʹõĻɱҪҵ͡ȻǹͬǣҹũƷɱлͶȴռ൱ıӱ1пԿ޻͵⣬ҹÿƷͶöҵ6ϡУҹÿͲɱлͶΪ1.52Ԫ/Ǽô󣨽Ϊ0.06Ԫ/19˵ҹũɱߵҪԭڻͶ̫߶µġζţũҵģ󣬻еˮƽߣͶͶԼ٣ôλƷͶý᲻һתơͬʱͶ澭õķչ־һӾ磬ӶʹҹũƷڹгϵľһ½һ˵ҹͶͶƣֻڻе˹ũƷвܷӳ޻Ʒ߲˺ˮȡһںķнõһ֤ʵ

5˰պͳɱ֧ɱ֧ҹũƷеĸҴ1994꿪ʼũز˰ӱ1ԿҹÿũƷɱе˰൱ϳɱ֧ԶҡҹũƷʵʸأҸũƷϴ޻ijɱ֧ΪÿĶ67ԪΪȵijɱ֧ÿĶΪ29Ԫijɱ֧Լռܳɱ8%ҡҹũƷũҵ˰ũز˰ͳɱ֧¼ۣ

һũ˰ߣɱӰ첻ũҵ˰ǰ˰յġ1999꡶йͳ1998ũҵڹֵеıΪ18%ũҵ˰ռ˰յ4.3%.ũƷɱҲ˵һ㣬ӱ1ԿҹҪũɱеũҵ˰ı5%¡

ڶɱ֧dzɱߵҪԭ֮һɱ֧ѡͳѡ֧ɱ֧ҹжûеijɱ֧Խͳɱ֧ǽһҹũƷ۸ʾҪ;֮һ

ũز˰ʣӳڴҹ1994ʼũҵز˰˰ʴ8—31%ȡЩũزЩƷ԰ղƷǾгھģЩƷũز˰ʵƫߣǵijھ

ģȡɱ֧ǿũƷĹʾȽҹũƷĽڵۺͿ۳ɱ֧Ĺг۸񣬲ѷ֣ڿ۳ɱ֧󣬹гСס󶹺ͲѵۣȻڽڵۣѷdzӽ⣬Ʒļ۸ֻ8-11%IJࡣ

ũɱṹ

ݱ1ԵõũƷɱṹϢӳɱṹҹũƷɱṹȴڽϴ졣ũƷɱṹɵõ¼Ҫۣ

һͶɱϴ

ҹũеĻͶɱܳɱռıΪ޻21%С35%ȣ36-38%׺ʹ󶹣46%ԼͲˣ54%ͼôȹ6ũƷɱлͶɱΪ9%ҡͼôũҵеɱϴ󣨱ҹ߳1—2 ͶͻеɱӵĽҹ6ũƷɱԱͼô20%ϡͬʱѿҹͶͶɱƣҪͶʵͶļ٣ҪҹͶͶ൱ѣͼôũͶͶȴ½ơһҹũƷͶḻƣͻɻͶñ̫ߵơһ൱ʱǺѸıģΪؾӪģ˻еˮƽߣڻͶͶͻеͶУͶʵѾҹܼũɱߵĻԭ֮һ

ڶɱ֧ϴ

˰ղӰҹũƷɱҪԭֻռܳɱ5%£Ҳ첻󡣵֮£ɱ֧ҹũƷɱӰϴڴ󲿷ũƷɱ֧ռܳɱıߴ10%ҡͬҪũƷڹȻͬΪũƷڹǷũũƷڹDzûгɱ֧һũҵƷ編

еúطñ

ҹũƷеܳɱռͬв죬10-20%֮䡣еܳɱռıС⣬ȴԵڶԱȹҡطܳɱռıϵͣΪûаõĻɱɱĺݡ

ҪƷɱĹʱȽ

һɱ

ҵҹũҵонϸ߱ȽƵҵҵҵҵռҹܲ70%1998ҹռ35%ͼôҪڹǶ⼸ҵɱһȽϷ

ӱ2Կ1998ҹũɢרҵÿɱҹÿɱ1998 Ϊ8—9ԪͬΪ11ԪҹʵɱҪ23%ңҹгɱ͸ˣֻɱ 64%.ͬȣҹɱҲһơ

21998ҪƷλɱˮƽĹʱȽ

ƷÿƷͶɱλƷɱ1ɱ

Ͷе˰վϴ

й

ƽ0.992.330.450.044.490.450.368.987.3

ũ1.622.050.340.053.420.770.268.557.1

רҵ0.682.200.340.004.480.250.518.457.0

гУ

ƽ0.711.990.210.013.400.350.437.097.1

רҵ0.521.950.130.013.380.200.336.506.4

1.430.552.640.224.070.111.9811.0011.0

1.320.701.140.004.210.091.328.77

⼦й

ȫƽ0.281.120.210.004.530.010.776.97-

רҵ0.271.130.130.004.510.010.536.63-

гУ0.00

ƽ0.211.060.140.004.960.000.717.08-

רҵ0.211.040.140.005.010.000.496.96-

-2.57-5.84-0.421.350.780.003.960.000.577.08-

й

ƽ0.180.880.180.004.240.010.415.89-

רҵ0.220.710.110.004.070.010.275.43-

-3.17-5.20-

0.751.230.890.003.500.000.486.86-

Դй꡶ȫũƷɱϻࡷũҵݿ⣬Arjan WismanAgri-monitor Agricultural Economics ResearchInstitute Number 1February 2000.سɱ=[ܳɱ-ɱ+×-ۼۣ]/-أгΪйĴгС

ݱ2ԼijɱṹԿڳɱṹϸ֮ڽϴ죬ҹɱռϴ25%ϣɱռ5%.Ϊǽһ˳ɱΧÿسɱÿسɱҹÿسɱԵصͺֱ34%18%.ҹɱֳԵıȽơ

ũɱȽϵĽȻͬҹɱ͵ĺҪԭΪͺȹĻͶռܳɱıϸߡũ⣨ũͶɱDZ߹ģͶɱҹռ8-10%ͺ13-15%.

ʽϿҹгɱͣɱƸͻֵעǣ1998ũɢĻͶɱռܳɱ20%Ҫȫƽˮƽ߽һҪԭǣDzõĻͶƼ۷ʽũɢרҵ֮ûͬʵг룬ΪũɢͶͶΪͶµͶʱ䣬Ͷɱ㡣һũɢɱҪһ10%ҡ

ôΪʲô˾Ƶҵҹȴϲϼôŷ˺أҪһԭҹ϶Ϊչҵıṹûнöߺͼμ⣬ӵƷܴٽӣôƷܵũ١

ݡɱ

ݵҹƷռݵڶλˣݵɱĸߵͶҵĽһչҪ塣ݡɱķǵó¼жϣ

һڳɱˮƽϣҹݲƷɱͺûдIJ죬ںڶڳɱṹϣҪIJҪռɱıϣӱ2ҹݲƷϳɱϴ󣬴Լ65-70%ңΪ44%56%.ҹݵתʽϵͣ1999ݵϵתΪ2ңҹ2.5-3֮䡣

Ҫ

ҹƷɱˮƽϵͣнϴıȽơԭǣһҹƷɱлͶɱϵͣڶͶͻеѣũԣʹҹͶḻƵԳֵķӣתϵϳɱƷɱһЩģũƷijɱ֧٣壬ҹʳɱϸߣҹƷɱнϴӰ죬༴ҹʳɱĽͣҹƷɱļ½ƷǷǸռͲƷ˵ͶܼͲҵҹƷɱбȽƵҪԭ

ˮ߲˼۸񼰳ɱĹʱȽ

ԻýĹˮ߲ɱϣ˶ˮ߲˲ֱȽϷһǶҪˮ߲˹۸бȽϣǴϲƷѡһ֣ۣ̽ɱϸķ

԰dzˮƷ֮ҹһҪľнϸ߱ȽƵũƷ۸ڹгкǿľ԰ƷĹڼ۸һҪȹг۸20%70%3ˮ㽶֮⣨۸Ҫȹг20-30%г۸ȳ밶۸͵ij̶Ϊ棨30-50%۸̣30%ңƻ3

ҹ󲿷߲˼۸Ҳڹг۸񣬴⡢СʽҹҪũƷڼ۸Ҫȹг۸50-100%.ܲެѵļ۸ҲԶ밶ۡ1995-1998䣬⣬гļ۸Լ20%70%֮䣨3

Ϊ˸õ˽ҹ԰Ʒ۸ϵ͵ԭԸ̽Ϊγɼ۸Ҫأɱз4гҹ̽ɱˮƽӦɱĿ׿Ʒ⣬ҹĸ̽ɱҪԼɱ30%.

ҹ̽ƣԭУһͶñҹ١ڶ̽е̶ȽϸߣͶҲ϶ࡣҹ̽ijɱ֧Խ١ԭǣ԰Ͷܼ͵ũеԴͶͶ롣

3ˮ߲˹г۸밶ۼ۸屣

ݹˮ

߲

ƻ۸㽶

ܲެ

ۣԪ/֣

1995467121102570337011008802030

199830872190184032709806301490

밶ۣԪ/֣

1995347235294206-162026182543

19983138236925742778114822361873

屣ʣ%

199535-40-39

-32-66-20

1998-2-8-2918-15-72-20

ԴԴũҵйũҵչ桷19981999й⾭ó༭ίԱᣬġй⾭óסؽݵȡ屣=[-밶ۣ/밶]×100.

4̽ɱԪ/ĹʱȽ

ݹÿƷͶɱλƷ

ɱũҩеػͶ˰ճɱ

1997й0.190.020.000.290.030.010.080.62

0.041.060.000.520.140.000.171.93

1998й0.270.030.340.050.030.080.84

0.051.170.000.790.170.000.212.38

Դ1999San Joaquin Valley Orange Cost and Return StudyUCCooperative Extension.1997ɱΪϺɱݣ1998ɱΪʥǸɱݡ

ݺӵǣҹĸ̽ԶԶ̽лƷũҩʹ㡣ߣлˮԽԽࡣũƷⲻǹʾߵ͵Ļָܷ꣬ﵽ׼⡣һ߲Ʒǿˮ߲˹ʾĹؼ

ġۺ߽

ҹũƷɱʱȽϷҪɹΪͶͻе׵ũƷҹƣͶͻе˻ѵũƷdz˵ͶܼũƷҹƣܼũƷҹоơ˵ʳͲˡϺһЩ޻ũƷɱڶչңûʲôȽƣƷˮ߲ɱڶչңȽƽԡܵҹũƷɱߵҪԭǣһģ٣λƷͶýϸߣڶũƷijɱ֧ߡ

ũƷɱǿũƷʾǽٵҪ֮һΧһϱо½ũƷɱũƷʾ߽顣

һӿƼũҵʩͶ룬ũҵͼˮƽߵ͵λƷɱ

ҹǵȴũƷɱձũƷҪڹΪũƷɱũƷ۸γɵĻũƷʾҪũƷɱɱһ£ͨƹȽũҵߵЧؼٵλƷͶijɱմﵽũƷ۸ũƷʾ

ƽתгչٵλƷͶ

йֲҵģСͶͶ϶࣬Ǵ󲿷ũɱߵĸԭҹĿǰũƽؾӪģ0.4꣬ͼôĸؾӪģӼٵǧꡣζڵλƷﻯɱͬ£йĻͶɱռܳɱ 40-60%ԶԶңռܳɱ10%ңˣƶתгķʹֺʹתؾӪģ͵λƷͶõЧ;

ȡ򽵵ͳɱ֧ũز˰

ҹũƷ˰5%Щũز˰Ҫũijɱ֧һصʵʸҹũƷijɱ֧Լռɱ10%ңЩũز˰ռɱıߴ40%ϡһγĶգΪû“ɱ֧”ˣȡɱ֧ũز˰ʣҹũƷĹʾһҪ;

ģʵϳɱ

ҹҪũɱͼôֻͶܼ͵ũƷƷˮ߲˵ȵɱϵ͡ҴҹƷɱṹռϴԶԶͺˣһƷɱǿƷʾҪϳɱҹʳɱϸߣϼ۸ҲϸߡΪˣʵڱ˵ϳɱԽһƷɱǿƷʾʹٽƷ

Ҫο

1.Moya P.F.D.Dawe and D.Pabale2000Reversing Trends of DecliningProductivity Project Database Social Sciences Division IRRI.

2.Wisman Agri-Monitor Agricultural Economics Research InstituteNo.1Feb.2000.

3.UC Cooperative Extension San Joaquin Valley Orange Cost and Return Study1999.

4.۾ֵȣȫũƷɱϻࡷ1997-2000ꡣ

5.ũձ磬ũ񸺵ֲᡷйũҵ磬19983¡

6.й⾭ó༭ίԱᣬй⾭óס1996-99ꡣ

7.ũҵйũҵչ桷1998-99ꡣ


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